What the numbers actually show.
Short, visual essays on how markets and trading really work — built from real data and shown the way we show it inside the product: honestly, with every number in its place.
Published essays
- Universal
What a Win Rate Leaves Out
Most of the euro–dollar trades won, and the average one still lost.
Read the essay - Equities
When Short Sellers Must Buy and No One Will Sell
A short squeeze happens when short sellers who must buy meet a market with almost no sellers.
Read the essay - Macro
The Year Stocks and Bonds Both Fell Heavily
In eleven of the twelve years since 1928 in which US stocks fell 10% or more, bonds lost little or nothing; 2022 was the exception.
Read the essay - Crypto
Eight Minutes on October 10
After the 20:50 post, bitcoin slid for twenty minutes, then fell 9% in eight.
Read the essay - Futures
When Speculators All Bet One Way
When speculators' bet on one side of a market reaches a record, it is tempting to expect the price to turn.
Read the essay - Equities
The 4% That Carry Everyone
Most US stocks did worse than cash over their lifetimes. A few companies created all of the market’s wealth, and for years even they looked like losers.
Read the essay - Equities
The Night Shift
From 1993 to 2020, large US stocks earned their gains while the exchange was closed.
Read the essay